Aussie Dollar Lifted on Soft US Jobs Data

AUD

The Australian Dollar opens mixed against the majors to close the week after data showing Australia's goods balance swung to a surprise deficit of A$3.0 billion in May, the largest since late 2015 and a shock to analysts forecasting a A$2.2 billion surplus, although the market largely ignored the results. Asian equities finished mixed yesterday with the Hang Seng trading +0.8%, Shenzhen -3% and the Nikkei -2.5%. The ASX 200 ended relatively flat on the day, despite a 3.6% loss in the utilities sector. Looking to Asia, later this morning the Chinese RatingDog Services PMI is set to release and is currently forecasted at 53.0, from a previous reading of 54.4. Nothing locally to end the week, with our next release being on Monday with MI Inflation Gauge m/m.

USD

AUDUSD regains its 0.69 handle opening higher this morning at 0.6919 after weaker-than-expected US employment data renews odds of the FOMC hiking rates. US Non-Farm Payrolls for June printed at 57k, down from a negatively revised 129k and well below expectations of 113k with 2-month net revisions at -74k. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell 0.1% to 4.2% though this was offset by an unexpected 0.3% decline in the participation rate to 61.5%. US Average Hourly Earnings data matched expectations at +0.3% MoM and +3.5% YoY. Released at the same time, weekly jobless claims data was slightly better than expected with initial claims at 215k. Wall St. fell heading into the NY afternoon and generally remained heavy with the Nasdaq closing -0.8% though a late rally saw the S&P500 end the day flat. The Dow Jones outperformed, remaining in positive territory throughout and closing +1.1% after a late rally. Expect a quiet Friday ahead with US Independence Day holiday ( nevertheless still a good FX value date ) seeing Wall Street closed. 

EUR

AUDEUR opens slightly lower this morning at 0.6054 after the Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate dropped from 6.3% to 6.2%, stable compared with April 2026 and down from 6.3% in May 2025. Eurozone equities closed in the green with the DAX +2.2%, and the CAC +1.7%. There will be a myriad of minor Eurozone data released today but the main focus will be the ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking at the Aix-en-Provence Economic Meetings in France later this evening at 6pm.

GBP

AUDGBP opens slightly down at 0.5184 after BOE member Mann sent mixed signals on monetary policy during her speech at the Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking Private Debt Forum. UK Equities closed in the green with the FTSE +1.7%. It will be another quiet day out of the UK with only their Final Services PMI being released which is not expected to move markets.

NZD

AUDNZD trades essentially sideways overnight opening slightly higher at 1.2149. No news of note from our Kiwi neighbours yesterday, and will end the week dry also. Looking at next week however, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet and investors are wagering heavily on a rise in the cash rate to 2.25%.