Cautious Risk Sentiment Outweighs Upbeat Aussie Jobs Data

AUD

The Aussie Dollar opens slightly down against the majors as healthy US labour data and cautious market sentiment outweigh stronger than expected local employment data. Asian equities ended higher yesterday with the Hang Seng closing +1.3%, Nikkei +0.5% and the Shenzhen +0.2%. Locally the ASX 200 closed +0.2% as materials and energy sectors outperformed at +1.4% and +1%. Australia’s June employment data released yesterday morning and beat expectations. Employment Change rose by 76.3K, far above the 16.4K expected and the previous 44K, while the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.4%. The Trump administration also confirmed a 12.5 per cent tariff will be placed on Australian exports to the US from later today, and argues that it's purpose is to take action against forced labour and slavery. Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI data was released early this morning, with manufacturing coming in at 51.7 from a previous 51.5 and services coming in at 53.0 from a previous 50.5.

USD

AUDUSD opens in the red at 0.6967 as risk sentiment soured overnight following President Trump remarking that he was “considering a massive attack" on Iran "greater than anything before”. Wall St. traded lower overnight as AI investment concerns and the continued conflict in the Middle East weighed on broader sentiment. The Nasdaq closed -2.2%, the S&P 500 -1.1%, and the Dow Jones -.9%. U.S. 10-year yields rose 4bps to 4.7%, while Brent Crude rose 6.5% and back above $100 a barrel. US Unemployment Claims released overnight at 187K, beating expectations of 211K from a previous 209K, and indicated that the US labour market remains resilient. Later tonight, US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI data is set for release and is currently forecasted to remain largely flat from last month at 54.4 and 51.3 respectively.

EUR

AUDEUR opens flat at a rate of 0.6123 after The ECB left rates on hold, in line with expectations. European equities closed in the red, with the DAX and CAC both coming in at -1.6%. In the press conference following the meeting, ECB President Lagarde noted that while the rate hold was unanimous, some Governors considered a rate hike and that recent attacks in the Red Sea were not considered at the meeting. Eurozone Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI data will be released later this evening to close out the week.

GBP

AUDGBP ends the week flat to open at a rate of 0.5233. UK equities also closed in the red, with the FTSE coming in at -0.7%. No major data released yesterday for the UK, but the economic calendar is slightly fuller today to close the week. The main focus today will be the release of UK Retail Sales m/m which is currently forecast at -0.3% from a previous 1.2% and Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI later this evening.

NZD

AUDNZD opens up this morning at a rate of 1.2073 off the back of strong local employment data. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is looking bare with the next key release being NZ employment data on August 5th.