Aussie Dollar Stalls as Ceasefire Momentum Fades
AUD
The Australian Dollar is trading mixed this morning across most majors but sits higher against the USD. This follows a significant risk-on shift after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, offsetting earlier threats to regional energy infrastructure. Domestically, the ASX 200 logged its best session of 2026, closing up +2.6% led by technology and materials. Asian equities were also stronger across the board, with the Nikkei up +5.4% and the Hang Seng rising +3.1%. With no major local data on the horizon today, the Aussie remains focused on the durability of the ceasefire and the outcome of the upcoming weekend talks in Islamabad. Market volatility for the AUD continues to be dictated by the fragile balance of global energy security and its immediate impact on the domestic economy.
USD
AUD/USD has held its gains from yesterday, opening at 0.7046. The US Dollar weakened broadly as the ceasefire agreement triggered an unwinding of safe-haven demand and a sharp drop in oil prices. Wall St. maintained its gains overnight despite accusations from Iran that the ceasefire had already been violated. The Dow Jones closed +2.9%, the Nasdaq +2.8%, and the S&P 500 +2.5%. U.S.10-year yields were steady at 4.3%, while Brent Crude fell 12% to $96 a barrel. Despite the easing of immediate war tensions, March FOMC minutes revealed that Federal Reserve officials are concerned about a lack of progress in reducing inflation. The minutes also suggest that the FOMC will need to see significant downward progress on both goods and non-housing core services inflation before cutting again. Looking ahead, the US releases final quarterly GDP data tonight (exp. 0.7%), followed by critical CPI inflation figures tomorrow night. For the Greenback, the primary risks remain tied to shifting geopolitical alliances and the resulting pressure on global fuel costs.
EUR
AUD/EUR is trading flat this morning at 0.6041. European equities opened significantly higher yesterday as the market reacted to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz being a condition of the ceasefire; the DAX gained 5.1% and the CAC rose +4.5%. While there is no major economic data scheduled for today, the Euro remains sensitive to energy shock risks and the ceasefire’s durability. The Eurozone's economic outlook is currently heavily dependent on the stabilisation of energy corridors and the easing of regional supply chain disruptions.
GBP
AUD/GBP has dipped slightly to 0.5259. Sterling remains pressured by a difficult economic outlook, though the FTSE followed the global rally to close up +2.5%. The Bank of England continues to balance interest rates at 3.75% against persistent inflation risks and stagnant growth. With no major UK data today, the Pound is tracking broader sentiment regarding the Middle East.
NZD
AUD/NZD has softened to 1.2096. Yesterday, the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% as expected but adopted a hawkish bias, signaling that the first rate hike could be brought forward to September. This helped the Kiwi regain ground against the Aussie in an otherwise quiet data week for New Zealand. The Kiwi remains vulnerable to shifts in global risk appetite, particularly as international tensions continue to influence the cost of essential energy imports.