AUD Holds Steady as Jobs Data Disappoints

AUD

The Aussie Dollar opens mostly flat against the majors, losing momentum following yesterday’s softer-than-expected jobs report. Asian equities ended higher yesterday, with the Nikkei up 2.4%, the Hang Seng up 1.7%, and the Shenzhen up 1.1%. Locally, the ASX 200 fell -0.3% as losses in the financial and energy sectors weighed on the index. Data was mixed yesterday as Employment Change data missed the 20k forecast, coming in at 17.9k and the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3%. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 5.9% from 5.2%, which keeps the possibility of an RBA rate hike in May firmly on the table. With a light domestic calendar today, traders remain focused on shifting global political developments.

USD

AUDUSD opens flat at 0.7162 as the USD regained some ground following investors reassessing the prospects of a quick US-Iran peace deal. While President Trump mentioned that talks could resume in Pakistan, the market remains skeptical, and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support the Greenback. Wall St. traded slightly higher overnight with the Nasdaq closing +.4%, the Dow Jones +.3%, and the S&P 500 +.2%. U.S.10-year yields rose 3bps to 4.31%, while Brent Crude rose 3.4% to $98.20 a barrel. US weekly jobless claims data was generally in line with expectations with initial claims at 207k compared to forecasts of 213k. US Industrial Production for March fell by 0.5%, down from a positively revised +0.7% and below expectations of +0.1% while Capacity Utilisation fell to 75.7% against forecasts of 76.3%. With a light data calendar today, the USD is likely to be driven by headlines regarding ceasefire negotiations and energy supply risks.

EUR

AUDEUR is flat this morning at 0.6077, with the Euro finding support from higher than expected inflation figures. The single currency is holding its own as markets anticipate that the ECB may need to raise rates sooner to manage rising energy costs. European equities closed mixed, with the DAX and CAC coming in at +0.4% and -0.1% respectively. The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.6% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February. Investors are now almost fully pricing in a rate hike for June, making upcoming speeches from ECB officials a key focus for the pair.

GBP

AUDGBP was also flat at the open coming in at 0.5293, as the Pound struggled with a mixed batch of domestic economic data. While the service sector showed some growth, a slump in manufacturing continues to weigh on the UK’s economic outlook. The FTSE finished up 0.3%, underperforming compared to its European and US counterparts. UK GDP rose 0.5% in February, beating expectations, but manufacturing production disappointed with a 0.1% slip. Traders are now waiting for BOE Governor Bailey’s comments in New York tonight for further direction on interest rates.

NZD

AUD/NZD moved up to 1.2158, with the Kiwi softening as investors favored the USD and AUD. The NZD remains sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite and has lacked its own domestic catalysts to keep pace with the Aussie. Global equities provided a positive backdrop, but the Kiwi failed to capitalize on the rally as safe-haven flows continue to benefit the Greenback. Following a small rise in visitor arrivals, the New Zealand data calendar is quiet for the rest of the week, with focus shifting to quarterly CPI figures on Tuesday next week.