Israeli Aggression Ignites Risk-Off Attitudes
AUD
The Australian Dollar opens lower this morning across the board after risk sentiment soured as the fallout from war in the Middle East roiled global markets and kept sentiment fragile, bolstering demand for the safe-haven currency. Australian January exports fell by -0.9% m/m (+1% previous), while January imports rose +0.8% m/m (-0.8% previous). The January trade surplus printed A$2.631bn forecasted at A$3.8bn. Asian equites finished higher across the board, with the Nikkei +1.9%, Hang Seng +0.3% and the ASX 200 +0.4%. Commodities saw Crude Oil strengthen +9.1%, while precious metals fell with Gold -1.4%, and Silver -3.1%. Nothing set for release locally to end the week, and will be pretty quiet until the RBA Cash Rate on the 17th of March.
USD
AUDUSD opens lower this morning at 0.7007 after the Greenback advanced gaining its yesterday, rebounding after a brief pullback from three-month highs, as an escalating conflict in the Middle East kept investors jittery and drove demand for safe-haven assets. US weekly jobless claims were a little mixed with initial claims steady at 213k, beating estimates of 215k though continuing claims rose. Also released and trade data for January showed import prices were generally lower than expected while export prices were mixed. US Equities closed deep in the red with the Dow Jones -2.2%, S&P 500 -1.2%, and the Nasdaq -1.1%. US Retail Sales for January will be published overnight. The data will provide an update to the state of the consumer. Momentum stalled in December, with both headline and core sales slowing down to 0.0% MoM, alongside downward revisions for November’s gains for both measures. The US Employment report for February will also be printed. Nonfarm Payrolls growth is projected to slow to +60k, down from January’s +130k. This release will also include the annual population control adjustments that had been delayed by a month, indicating there will likely be a downward revision to the size of the population, Labour force, and employment numbers. While consensus expects the Unemployment Rate to rise to 4.4%.
EUR
AUDEUR opens lower this morning at 0.6037 after the Aussie weakened overnight due to the escalating Middle Eastern conflict. Eurozone Retail Sales for January printed at -0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, mixed against expectations of +0.3% and +1.7% respectively due to some significant positive revisions to the prior results. Eurozone equities closed in the red with DAX -1.6%, and the CAC -1.5%. Looking at Eurozone data, earlier in the morning ECB President Lagarde spoke at the 2026 Annual Global Risk Lecture however there was little reaction, there will also be a few more minor releases later this evening with
German Factory Orders m/m, Final Employment Change q/q, and Revised GDP q/q.
GBP
AUDGBP opens lower this morning at 0.5247 off of Aussie weakness despite yesterday’s Construction PMI’s printing lower than forecast at 44.5 from 47. UK equities closed in the red with the FTSE -1.5%. It will be a quiet day UK data releases with only
Halifax HPI m/m set for release later this evening at 6pm however is not expected to move markets.
NZD
AUDNZD loses its 1.19 handle opening lower this morning at 1.1878. Our Kiwi neighbours have had a quiet week and will continue that trend to end the week with nothing set for release, their next data release will be on the 12th of March with Manufacturing Sales q/q.