Rising Risk Sentiment lifts the AUD
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens higher against the majors, as global investor optimism improved despite increased attacks in the Middle East. Asian equities finished soft, with the ASX up 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite closing flat. It was a quiet finish for the week locally, with no news on Friday and none for today. All eyes will be on Thursday’s unemployment data, with the rate expected to remain at 4.6% and Employment Change to soften from 39.5k to 20k. Last month’s surprise higher figure moved market expectations of another hike this year from a near certainty to 50/50, with another blowout reading able to crush the idea completely.
USD
The AUDUSD opens the week mildly higher, with the pair slowly rising since Friday, opening this morning at a rate of 0.6979. New attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend are the worst in a decade, threatening to widen the Middle East conflict. Wall Street closed with gains, with the DOW JONES up 0.8% and the S&P 500 + NASDAQ closing up 0.6%. The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey for October printed at 46.3, down from 48.1 and below expectations of 47.6. Current conditions were significantly lower than forecast with expectations higher than expected, while inflation expectations were lower with 1 year up 0.15 to 4.7% against expectations of 4.8% while 5-10 year matched expectations at 3.5%. Today is a bank holiday for Columbus Day, with all eyes on Wednesday’s CPI prints, which are looking to increase on all metrics. Several FOMC officials are scheduled to speak this week. Among them, remarks from Hammack, Waller, and Bowman are likely to draw particular attention, as they are voting members in 2026.
EUR
The AUDEUR opens the week higher, with the pair lifting to a 2-year high, opening this morning at a rate of 0.6240. European equities were green into the close, with the DAX up 1.1% and the CAC up 1%. Friday saw Italian Industrial Production m/m fall to -1.3%, expected at 0.0% from 0.6%. There is no news out today for the Europeans, with ECB President Lagarde speaking twice on Wednesday, where traders will be looking for any clues on rate policy.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens the day higher, with the pair reaching a 10-day high over the weekend, opening this morning at 0.5276. It was a quiet end to the week for the Brits, with today having MPC members Breeden and Mann speaking at different events. Thursday has their GDP m/m set to be released, expected to contract to -0.1% from 0.4%, a very poor sign for the UK, which will limit what the BOE can do to control inflation.
NZD
AUDNZD opens higher, with the pair pushing to a weekly high, opening this morning at a rate of 1.2444. There was no data out on Friday and nothing until Wednesday morning with Visitor Arrivals m/m.