Iran Uncertainty Reverses Recent AUD Rise
AUD
The Aussie Dollar relinquishes some of its recent gains against the majors amidst increasing middle eastern tensions, and Trump’s vow to help. Commodities saw an uptick, with Oil climbing 1.2%, Gas up 1.5%, Gold up 0.4%, Silver up 2.2% and Copper up 1.2%, with only Iron Ore down 0.4%. Asian equities were soft into the close, with the ASX up 0.1% and the SHANGHAI COMP down -0.3%. Yesterday saw China’s exports are still booming despite all the noise about tariffs. China’s exports grew 6.6% overall in US dollar terms in December from a year ago, thanks to diversification of both export destinations and types of exports. Today will see new Loans out of China, expected to over double from 390b to 820b and locally our MI inflation Expectations are to be released at 11am, previously 4.7%.
USD
The AUDUSD opens the day flat, with the pair scratching back at the 0.67 barrier before dipping back down, opening this morning at a rate of 0.6685. Wallstreet bled into the close, with DOW JONES down -0.3%, S&P 500 down -0.9% and the NASDAQ was down -1.5%. U.S. Retail Sales for November rose 0.6% MoM, beating forecasts of +0.5% with core measures also all higher than expected by 0.1%. US PPI for November was +0.2% MoM as expected, 3.0% higher YoY, which was higher than forecasts of +2.7%. Core measures were mixed with MoM results in line or weaker while YoY results were higher than expected. These are all quite positive signs for rate cuts from the fed this year, showing increased spending whilst having lower upstream inflation. In geo-political news, it was reported that the U.S. were withdrawing personnel from bases in the Middle East because of heightened volatility in the region. Tonight, will see the release of Unemployment claims, expected to increase to 215k from 208k.
EUR
The AUDEUR was stable into the close with the pair keeping slowing small movement yesterday, opening this morning at a rate of 0.5736. European equities saw a decline, with the DAX closing down -0.5% and the CAC down -0.2%. Yesterday was quiet for economic news, with the rest of the week looking quiet too. Tonight we have French Final CPI m/m looking to remain at 0.1% and Euro Trade Balance
GBP
The AUDGBP sees mild contractions since yesterday, slipping to this morning’s open of 0.4970. British equites saw a raise, with the FTSE finishing up +0.5%. It was a quiet day of news for the brits as well, with their RICS House Price Balance Coming in lower at -17% from -16%. Tonight will see their major data point of the week, the GDP m/m. It is expected to grow from -0.1% to 0.1%, continuing to see saw from growth to decline as it has since post covid, showing the perilous situation that they are in with sticky inflation too.
NZD
The AUDNZD saw a decline yesterday, with the pair heading back for the 1.16 barrier, opening this morning at a rate of 1.1625. ANZ Commodity prices m/m came in lower at 2.1% from -1.6% yesterday; there is no news out for today.