Jobs Data to Determine Greenback's Near-Term Fate

AUD

The Australian Dollar weakened overnight, opening lower across the board against the major’s bar the NZD, unable to maintain its ground even after drawing support from recent data showing upbeat Q2 GDP growth, reinforcing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia might hold rates in September. Asian equities finished the day mixed, the Nikkei +1.5%, Shenzhen -2.2% and Hang Seng -1.1%. Locally, the ASX 200 ended +1%, with financials and consumer discretionary sectors leading the pack. Commodities closed in the red with Gold -0.3%, Silver -1.2%, Iron Ore -0.4%, and Copper -1.3%. Quiet day for domestic data with nothing set for release, leading into a quiet period for Australian news with our next major release being on the 18th with our employment data.  
 

USD

AUD/USD opens lower this morning at 0.6517 despite some mixed data out of the US with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Claims both underperforming, while ISM Services PMI came through higher than forecast at 52.0 with economic activity in the services sector growing in August for the third consecutive month. US equities closed in the green with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both +0.8%, while the Nasdaq +1.0%. The major US non-farm employment report is due out tonight. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.3% (prev. 4.2%), with payrolls growth projected to come in at +85K. July’s report signaled a cooling momentum, with significant downward revisions for May and June pushing the three-month average to its lowest level since 2020. This release will shape expectations around Fed’s upcoming September decision, with the central bank paying particular attention to the labour market at the moment.
 

EUR

AUD/EUR loses its 0.56 handle, opening lower this morning at 0.5595 despite Eurozone Retail Sales m/m coming through lower with the volume of retail trade down by 0.5% in July 2025, compare with June 2025. Eurozone equities closed mixed with the DAX +0.7%, while the CAC -0.3%. Today there will be a few minor pieces of data out of the Eurozone starting with German Factory Orders m/m at 4pm, followed by French Trade Balance, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Final Employment Change q/q, and Revised GDP q/q with the next major release set for next Thursday with the European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate.
 

GBP

AUD/GBP opens lower this morning at 0.4851 despite the UK Construction PMI showing business activity falling for the eighth month in a row, but at slower pace than in July coming through at 45.5. UK equities closed in the green with the FTSE +0.4%. Looking at UK data today, we will see Retail Sales m/m with forecasts pointing to lower retail sales for July at 0.3%, from previous of 0.9%. Halifax HPI m/m will close off the week for UK data, which is also expected to drop lower from 0.4% to 0.2%.
 

NZD

AUD/NZD opens slightly higher this morning at 1.1145, hitting 7-month highs for the coupling. Nothing set for release from our Kiwi neighbours to end the week with the next data piece set for release next Tuesday with their Manufacturing Sales q/q.