AUD Continues Holding Ground
AUD
The AUD is trading fairly flat across all major pairs this morning, with limited local data releases giving the currency room to consolidate. This has allowed the AUD to hold onto its recent gains, supported by improved risk sentiment and softer USD momentum. Equities are slightly weaker, with the ASX down 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite off 0.3%, reflecting a cautious tone in Asian trading. There was little in the way of market-moving data yesterday, and today is similarly quiet. RBA Members Hunter and Hauser are speaking today. The next key release will come on Thursday with employment change figures and rate announcements, which are likely to provide the next real direction for the AUD.
USD
AUD/USD opened at 0.6672 this morning, up only about 20 pips from yesterday’s open. The move came after the Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations, marking its first negative reading since June and putting mild pressure on the USD. U.S. equities closed higher overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the NASDAQ gaining 0.9%, as investors shrugged off the weaker data and rotated back into risk assets. Yesterday’s data was relatively light, giving the market little new direction. Today’s focus will be on U.S. Core Retail Sales, forecast at 0.4% compared to the previous reading of 0.3%, along with headline Retail Sales expected to come in at 0.2% following a previous print of 0.5%. Tomorrow is likely to remain quiet before Thursday’s employment figures and Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
EUR
AUD/EUR opened flat from yesterday, with no significant drivers to shift the pair in either direction, opening at 0.5671. European equities are trading higher, with the DAX up 0.2% and the CAC gaining 0.9%, reflecting a cautiously positive tone across the region. Market attention will turn to today’s European data, with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, which could provide fresh insight into economic conditions and influence short-term EUR flows.
GBP
AUD/GBP opened flat at 0.4904 this morning, with no eventful data or market drivers to push the pair in either direction. The market is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate around current levels as traders await upcoming U.K. and global economic updates. U.K. equities are lacklustre, with the FTSE down 0.1%. Attention today will turn to key U.K. labour market data, including the Average Earnings Index for the past three months, which is expected at 4.7% following a prior 4.6%, and the Claimant Count Change, forecasted at 15.3K versus a previous -6.2K. These releases will give a clearer picture of the health of the U.K. labour market as well as tomorrow’s U.K. CPI y/y is expected at 3.8%, and markets will watch closely for any signs it could sway near-term GBP moves.
NZD
AUD/NZD is trading fairly flat this morning, moving only around 10 pips as the market remains quiet and without major local drivers. Today looks set to be a quiet data day for AUD/NZD, with the only release being the Food Price Index (FPI), released at +0.3% m/m. All attention shifts to Thursday, when Q2 GDP q/q is due, forecasted at -0.3% versus the previous 0.8%.