RBA Minutes to Spotlight Shock Rate Hold

AUD

The Aussie Dollar weakened over the past 24h, opening lower against all majors except for the USD ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Meeting Minutes later this morning. Asian equities finished the day mixed with gains for the Shenzhen exchange +0.7% and the Hang Seng +0.6%. Locally the ASX shed -1%, as the financials and consumer discretionary sectors lead losses at -2.3% and -1.2%. All eyes are on today’s RBA Meeting Minutes (11:30 am AEST). Markets expect the Board to reiterate that July’s decision to hold at 3.85% was about “timing, not direction.” Following June’s disappointing Labour Force Survey, just 2 000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.3%, traders have fully priced in at least two rate cuts by year‑end. Any dovish language in the minutes could cap further AUD gains and cement expectations of an easing cycle beginning in August.
 

USD

AUD/USD has edged higher at 0.6528, supported by a lull in public proceedings in the U.S. trade war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said negotiations with China are “in a good place,” even as White House Press Secretary Leavitt warned of potential unilateral tariff letters before the August 1 deadline. U.S. equities closed mixed on Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to a fresh high, the Nasdaq added 0.4%, and the Dow slipped 0.1%. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell’s speech tonight, the last major Fed appearance before July’s blackout period, for any shift in tone on inflation risks and the rate outlook.
 

EUR

AUD/EUR slipped slightly to 0.5582. Euro weakness this month has been modest, and European equities are stable, the CAC 40 is up 0.67%, while the DAX has seen minor change since yesterday. European markets remain subdued ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. Thursday’s flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs in France and Germany will offer a first glance at growth momentum, though a surprise rate cut seems unlikely. The central bank is expected to hold the key Eurozone interest rate steady at 2.15%, although increased tariffs and a strengthening Euro have upped expectations of further easing later in the year.
 

GBP

AUDGBP is also slightly down at 0.4839. Thursday's flash UK PMIs will test whether services can offset weakness in manufacturing, but all eyes will be on Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech, this evening, for clues on the Bank’s policy path amid persistent inflationary pressures.
 

NZD

AUD/NZD remains elevated at 1.0936. Yesterday’s Q2 CPI came in at +0.5% q/q versus +0.6% forecasts and +0.9% prior, undershooting expectations and highlighting softer domestic price pressures. Today’s trade balance unexpectedly printed at NZD 142 million deficit, as imports surged 19% while export growth moderated. The RBNZ’s Statement of Intent, due tomorrow, will outline the central bank’s strategic priorities for the coming year.