Aussie Jobs Data to Shape RBA Call
AUD
The Aussie Dollar sees a mixed performance against the majors, with much data showing tariffs having muted effects on inflation, with commodities seeing soft gains, with Oil gaining 0.3%, Nat Gas up 1.6%, Gold flat, Silver up 0.2%, Iron up 1% and Copper down 1.3%. Asian equities shared a similar fate, with the ASX closing up 0.8%, and the SHANGHAI COMP closing flat. CB Leading Index m/m came out yesterday lower at 0.3%, previously at 0.6%. Australia's June jobs market data today will be the first look at the labour market since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to hold rates this month. Expectations are jobs growth of 35,000 and the Unemployment Rate to stay at 4.1%. The RBA will be keeping an eye out for signs of ongoing strength in the labour market as it starts to weigh up whether it can cut in August, and if so, by how much.
USD
The AUDUSD has a whiplash over the past 24 hours, moving nearly 1% from the lows (0.6495) to highs (0.6554) based on the flat readings of Producer Price Index, opening this morning flat at 0.6525. Wall Street saw a modest rise, with the DOW JONES gaining 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing up 0.3%. U.S. PPI for June printed flat MoM and +2.3% YoY, both numbers coming in 0.2% lower than expected with core measures also failing to meet expectations. This reading was a further sign that tariff effects are not yet being passed on by manufacturers to customers, causing further tension between Trump and US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tonight, we will see Retails Sales to be released, expected to show growth from a contraction in the previous month.
EUR
The AUDEUR sees small losses, with the pair diving through the 0.56 barrier in the middle of the night, mostly recovering to this morning’s open of 0.56058, being flat on yesterday's open. Euro stocks fell off yesterday, with the DAX finishing down 0.2% and the CAC down 0.6%. Last night saw that the Euro Trade Balance increased to 16.2B, expected to slump 1.2B from the last reading. An interesting reading to see an increase with global trade tensions being heightened, it may show a “front-loading” before any tariffs are put into place. Tonight, will see the Final CPI y/y readings, expected to remain unchanged at 2%, and the Core figure at 2.3%.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens the day flat, with the pair keeping fairly unchanged, opening this morning at a rate of 0.4864. British Equities were soft into the close, with the FTSE finishing down 0.1%. CPI y/y was released, expected to remain at 3.4%, but rose to 3.6%, which was led by heightened motor fuel prices. The stubbornly high inflation that is occurring, with poor economic growth will leave the Bank of England in a difficult spot for their next meeting in August. This afternoon will see Average Earnings Index 3m/y set to decrease by 0.3% to 5%, and Claimant Count Change to lower from 33.1k to 17.9k.
NZD
The AUDNZD hit a 3-month high of 1.0989 yesterday, continuing it’s climb higher, opening this morning at a rate of 1.0974. This morning saw the FPI m/m increase to 1.2% from 0.5%. There is no further data out today.