Retail Sales to Spotlight Domestic Demand

AUD

The AUD opens mixed across the majors off the back of mixed US GDP and unemployment data, as well as bank holidays in France, Germany and Switzerland. Commodities were relatively flat yesterday; however, Ice Nat Gas and Newcastle coal were down 4.1% and 2.3% respectively. Asian equities followed a strong after-hours session on Wall St. to see the Nikkei close +1.9%, Hang Seng +1.4% and Shenzhen +0.6%. Locally the ASX 200 closed +0.2% higher, led by gains in energy and IT at +1.3% and +0.8%. Yesterday, we didn’t see any notable data point out for the Aussie or out of Asia. Today, Aussie Retail Sales m/m expected at +0.3%. The RBA has been concerned about the strength of domestic demand, so this release will be closely watched. We'll also see Building Approvals m/m & Private Sector Credit m/m data to follow after. No data expected until their Manufacturing PMI & Non-Manufacturing PMI on Saturday expected at 49.5 and 50.6.
 

USD

AUDUSD opens stronger at 0.6444, benefiting from the US Court of International Trade ruling that Trump's sweeping tariff scheme, which had upended global markets, was illegal. The court's ruling mainly follows the argument that a trade deficit that has persisted for 49 years does not meet the requirement of an 'unusual and extraordinary threat'. The White House administration has already filed an appeal, and the case is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court. Wall St. traded slightly higher overnight with the Nasdaq closing +.4% and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones both closing +.3%. The U.S. data was weaker with initial jobless claims at 240k (230k exp.) and second Q1 personal consumption at 1.2% (1.7% exp.). GDP annualised improved to -0.2% q/q (-0.3% exp). Today, Pending Home Sales m/m missed significantly expected at -0.9% came in at -6.3%. Tonight, Core PCE Price Index m/m, previously flat, expected to come in at 0.1%. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, FOMC Member Bostic Speaks and FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaking all on Saturday.
 

EUR

AUDEURO tanks overnight, losing 60bps to open at 0.5666. The DAX and CAC were -0.4% and -0.1% respectively. Yesterday, we saw little Eurozone data off the back of a public holiday in the major trading countries. German Prelim CPI m/m previously at 0.4%, expected at 0.1%. Spanish Flash CPI y/y previously at 2.2% and expected at 2.1%. No data out this weekend and a quiet start to the week anticipated for the Euro.
 

GBP

AUDGBP opens at 0.4775, trading pretty flat since Monday. Similarly, the FTSE closed -0.1%. Gov Bailey spoke on raising the UK's potential growth rate at the Irish Association of Investment Managers. A quiet end of weekend for the Pound with no data until MPC Member Mann Speaks on Tuesday morning.
 

NZD

AUDNZD opens trading at 1.0781, exactly flat on yesterday's open. Yesterday, RBNZ Gov Hawkesby Spoke on slower global growth curbing New Zealand. Today, no data and a public holiday on Monday to start the week quietly.