Hard Data to Determine Dollar's Next Move
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed this morning after a quiet day yesterday with no domestic data releases. Asian equities opened the week quietly, the Nikkei +0.4%, the Shenzhen -0.1% and the Hang Seng flat. The ASX closed +0.4% higher despite mining stocks dragging on the index, down -0.6%. Commodities closed mostly in the green with Gold +0.4%, Silver +0.1%, Iron Ore flat, and Copper +0.2%. Another quiet day today domestically with only RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking at 12:05pm. Tomorrow will hold the main event of the week with our CPI q/q, CPI y/y, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q set to release at 11:30am which will be a key data event that will provide further clues surrounding the RBA's next interest rate decision on May 20.
USD
The AUDUSD coupling opens higher at 0.6427, reaching near-yearly highs at 0.6429 after the US Dollar slid across the board with investors waiting warily for further news of U.S. trade policy. The week ahead is packed with US economic data, which may initially provide an indication on whether US President Donald Trump's trade war is hitting home. US equities closed yesterday mixed with the Dow Jones +0.3%, S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq -0.1%. Tonight, US Job Openings data for March is set to be released and could shape perceptions of the labour market's health. In February, the number of JOLTS Job Openings decreased by 194k to 7.6 million, as rising uncertainty due to tariffs dampened labour demand, continuing the downward trend that began in March 2022. A further decrease of 100k to 7.5m million is expected with any significant deviation likely to shift sentiment. The labour data, released tonight, tomorrow and Friday, will be closely watched for any signs that slumping US consumer and business confidence is resulting in layoffs. Any big downside surprise could trigger another leg of USD selling. We'll also see CB Consumer Confidence data this evening.
EUR
AUDEUR opens flat this morning at 0.5634 with little hard-hitting data over the past 24h. The Spanish Unemployment Rate came through higher than forecasted at 11.4% from the forecasted 10.7%. Eurozone equities closed in the green with DAX +0.1%, and CAC 0.5%. There will be a myriad of minor data releases out of the Eurozone later this evening however the main event will be the Spanish Flash CPI y/y set for release at 5pm forecasted to drop from 2.3% to 2%.
GBP
AUDGBP opens lower this morning at 0.4785 despite UK Retail Sales falling for a seventh month in row, however retailers reported that sales volumes fell at a slower rate in the year to April, following a sharp drop in March. For UK equities the FTSE closed flat. We had the BRC Shop Price Index y/y release earlier this morning coming through higher than forecast at -0.1% from the forecast -0.2%. Later this evening we will also hear from MPC Member Ramsden.
NZD
AUDNZD opens slightly higher this morning at 1.0764. No news set for release from our Kiwi neighbours however tomorrow we will get their ANZ Business Confidence which has no forecast as of yet, but will be the last piece of data until Friday with their Building Consents m/m.