AUD Treading Water Ahead of Inflation Data

AUD

AUD opens mixed against the major currencies, as US rate cut odds increase and mixed economic data pours in.  Asian equities ended the session positively, with the Shenzhen +1%, Hang Seng +0.7% and Nikkei +0.1%.  Locally the ASX 200 climbed +0.1%, as materials and technology sectors led gains of +1.7% and +1.2%. A nothing start to the week locally. Today, all eyes on Aussie CPI y/y expected at 3.6%  which is set to spur future Cash Rate decisions. A similar start to the week for China, with no data scheduled for today or the rest of the week, with their next piece of data being Manufacturing PMI’s on Sunday, which is forecasted to increase from 49.0 to 49.2
 

USD

AUDUSD opens flat at 0.6466, trading in a range of 0.6437/0.6475 as markets adjust to rate cut odds increasing from 40-70%. Another positive session on Wall St. saw the Dow Jones trading +1.3%, the S&P 500 +0.8%, and the Nasdaq +0.4% late in the session.  U.S. 10-year yields fell 2bps and below 4%, while Brent Crude fell 1.7% to $62.30 a barrel. A big day for US Data. Overnight, we saw PPI and Retail Sales mixed, Core PPI missing at 0.1, expected 0.2% and PPI m/m on expectation at 0.3%. Core Retail and Retail Sales m/m similar with Core on expectation and Retail Sales m/m missing at 0.2% expected at 0.4%. too overnight, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales m/m coming in -15, expected -5, 88.7 expected 93.4 and 1.9% expected 0.5%, wildly missing or overachieving US Data. Unemployment claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Durable Goods Orders m/m out tomorrow.

EUR

AUDEUR weakens overnight losing roughly 20 basis points overnight in lieu of uncertain mass US data releasing to open at 0.5588. Eurozone equities closed in the green with the DAX +1%, while the CAC closed +0.8%. Yesterday, ECB President Lagarde spoke at the BratislavAI Forum, in Bratislava on the power of Artificial Intelligence. Today, ECB Financial Stability Review is out this evening.
 

GBP

AUDGBP opens weaker at 0.4911 to start the day. The FTSE closed in the green +0.8%. This evening, GBP Autumn Forecast Statement as the budget is set to be released, it will be a significant test of the government’s fiscal credibility after a wobbly period. Beyond that a quiet rest of the week for the Pound.
 

NZD

AUDNZD opens flat at 1.1504 ahead of their Cash Rate decision and Aussie CPI today. NZD Official Cash Rate decision with forecasts pointing to a 25-basis point cut from 2.50% to 2.25% set to release at midday, with statements and conferences to follow.