More Noise Than Signals For The Dollar
AUD
The Australian Dollar is flat across the majors with no key data or events over the weekend. We will hear from RBA Deputy Gov Hauser which may provide further clues on RBA expectations. Risk-off sentiment remained during the Asian session, Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.9%, and Shenzhen -0.3%. Looking ahead, this week, the Australian Unemployment Rate is due on Thursday, expected to drop slightly to 4.4% from 4.5%. The overall theme of Australian economic strength remains intact, but the jobs data could introduce some volatility this week. Further ahead the futures market prices in just over a 70% probability of a rate cut by the end of Q2 2026.
USD
The AUD/USD opens relatively flat at 0.6495 and traded within the 0.6468–0.6499. The dollar’s broad strength appears linked to changes in U.S. interest rates.
The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, which began on October 1st, is now the longest in U.S. history at 40 days. This has delayed the release of several key economic reports over recent weeks, and it remains uncertain how any resolution might affect the timing of future data releases. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.1%, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remained steady at 4.09%. Brent Crude increased by 0.5% to $63.70 per barrel. Markets are expected to focus more on alternative data to assess economic conditions. Fed officials’ comments will be closely watched as participants evaluate the chance of a December rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams told the Financial Times that central bankers face a "balancing act" regarding a potential December cut. Economic data releases have been delayed, including last week’s payrolls report and this week’s CPI report. This Friday is an expected release of CPI and Unemployment data.
EUR
The AUD/EUR pair opens quietly flat today at 0.5620. Europe’s increased spending plans are driving higher debt levels, supported by Germany’s stimulus measures and rising defense budgets. However, as governments increase spending, experts warn that market tolerance is waning. European markets trimmed losses but still closed notably lower: CAC -0.2% and DAX -0.7%. The next key data will be Friday’s trade balance.
GBP
The AUD/GBP pair is flat at 0.4936. Last week, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4.0% during the November meeting. Governor Bailey stated, “Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path” if disinflation persists. For equities the FTSE dipped -0.5%,
The Autumn Budget set for November 26 remains a source of concern and pressure on the pound. We will see GBP Unemployment Rate tomorrow evening, and GDP m/m on Thursday.
NZD
The AUD/NZD opens at 1.1542 reaching 12 year highs again. This reflects New Zealand's weaker economic performance. This week’s New Zealand data is limited but still important to watch for potential NZD moves, including RBNZ inflation expectations, retail spending, and manufacturing figures.