AUD Awaits Chinese Data Dump

AUD

The Australian Dollar kicks off the week slightly higher against the majors. Asian equities finished Friday lower with the Hang Seng -2.6%, Shenzhen -2.3% and Nikkei -1.5%. Locally, the ASX 200 fell by -0.8%. No Aussie news between Friday and this morning, and no data this week. In China, the 3Q25 GDP figures are set to be released today, with 4.7% growth expected, down from 2Q 5.2%. The lower figure is mainly due to the sharp slowdown in fixed asset investment (6% yoy contraction in July–Aug 2025, vs. 2% yoy growth in 2Q). Given that investment accounts for around 40% of China’s GDP, such a slowdown is significant, suggesting that growth could fall below 4% in 3Q25. Today, China is also expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady for the fifth consecutive month, as policymakers remains cautious despite a recent flare-up in trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. 
 

USD

AUD/USD opened this morning a little higher at 0.6502 from last week's 0.6490. A choppy week ultimately ended on a positive note with all three major US equity indices up: S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow all closing +0.5% on Friday. Trump spoke Friday stating that threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled to take effect Nov 1. were "not sustainable", Tariff concerns are seen to be temporarily easing and it was announced Trump and Xi are to meet in South Korea in 2 weeks' time. A quiet week ahead of the US data front.
 

EUR

AUD/EUR opened slightly higher at 0.5579 from Friday's 0.5550. European equities ended the session lower with the DAX -1.8% and CAC -0.2%. Friday evening saw Final Core CPI y/y print up at 2.4% against a forecast of 2.3%. European Central Bank's Nagel spoke Saturday highlighting points across monetary policy saying there is currently no need to act on interest rates. Governor Wunsch said further rate cuts appear unlikely. The ECB slashed rates by a combined 2 percentage points in the year to June but has been on hold ever since. While addressing Euro-China trade, Nagel spoke saying Europe needed to avoid a trade war with China and should maintain a dialogue but also needed to protect its own markets. Later tonight, we'll see German PPI m/m.  
 

GBP

AUD/GBP opened a little higher at 0.4842 from last week's 0.4828. The FTSE closed -1.6%. No data between Friday and now. Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke Saturday saying Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK’s economic growth “for the foreseeable future,” The IMF meetings in Washington, DC saw Gov Bailey highlight a decline in the UK’s potential growth rate from 2.5% to 1.5% over the past 15 years. Later today is Rightmove HPI m/m. Importantly, Wednesday we see CPI y/y forecasted to be 4.0% against September’s 3.8%.
 

NZD

AUD/NZD opens the morning higher at 1.1351 from last Friday's 1.1329. This morning, CPI q/q printed +1.0%, exceeding +0.8% expectations and July's +0.8% print. Tomorrow we will see NZD Trade Balance print in the morning, with Credit Card Spending y/y later in the afternoon.