AUD Struggles as Jobs Report Looms
AUD
The Aussie Dollar opens mixed against the major currencies, although largely weighed down as markets adjust their expectations from the recent RBA Cash Rate decision, Rate Statement as well as today's upcoming Aussie jobs report. A lot is riding on the report now that the RBA has unexpectedly turned dovish on rates. Forecasts are centered on an increase of 25k new jobs in October, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to have ticked up from 4.2% to 4.1%. The labour market has stayed surprisingly resilient for the past 6 months and markets will be looking for any further clues on what the RBA will decide to do in February. On equities, the ASX closed -0.5% while the Nikkei closed flat and Shanghai Comp +0.3%. Additionally, commodities were mixed with the major movers being Oil +2.6% and Natural Gas -2.4%. Chinese New Loans may be released today, with the total value expected to be almost double last month’s reading as China looks to stimulate their economy. Aside from the jobs report at 11:30am, no other key data for the remainder of the week.
USD
The AUDUSD opens at 0.6369, trading between 0.6338 and 0.6389 yesterday as the AUD weakens on the RBA's dovish tilt. The major news out of the US were their inflation data which released as expected; their CPI for the year was 2.7% y/y. Reuters also published a headline stating that China’s top policy makers were considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 amidst the threat of Trump tariffs, however, this was mitigated as the inflation data solidified expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next Thursday by 25 basis points. Wall Street closed generally positive as Dow Jones closed flat, S&P500 +0.9% and Nasdaq +1.7%. Tonight will see PPI and Unemployment Claims data out of the US, which is expected to be similar to previous readings. No other data for the rest of the week.
EUR
The AUDEUR opens higher at 0.6069 as the rate fluctuated between 0.6033 and 0.6074 last night. There was no data out of the Eurozone yesterday and their equities closed slightly positive with DAX +0.3% and CAC +0.4%. Tonight, the European Central Bank will have their main interest rate decision with an expected cut of 25 basis points to 3.15%, however, all eyes on the Press Conference for off-key commentary from ECB President Lagarde as the ECB are expected to “cut faster in bid to revive flagging economy”. No other news for the rest of the week once the Press Conference is done.
GBP
The AUDGBP opens at 0.4993, reaching 4.5 year lows of 0.4973 last night as the AUD weakens on expectations of an impending interest rate cut in Australia. The GBP has seen a boost due to England’s improving economy thanks to changes in fiscal and monetary policy. The FTSE continues to be positive as it closes +0.3%. Today will not have any major economic data released but tomorrow will see their GDP m/m, expected to release at +0.1%.
NZD
The AUDNZD opens higher at 1.1008, trading sideways between 1.0983 and 1.1015 over the past 24 hours. Yesterday saw Manufacturing Sales q/q release at -0.1%. No news today, however, the BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index and Visitor Arrivals m/m will be released tomorrow, with no current expectations posted.